PANIC buying and fuel shortages have been predicted if the East Riding is hit by a global flu outbreak. Public health officers at East Riding Council are working on the plan to prevent East Yorkshire grinding to a halt in the event of a flu pandemic.
While panic buying and fuel shortages are likely as food delivery staff and lorry drivers fall ill and stocks become low, the plan aims to minimise disruption to essential services.
Dr Tim Allison, director of public health, said: "Although it is highly likely that another influenza pandemic will occur at some time, it is impossible to forecast its exact timing or the precise nature of its impact.
"This uncertainty is one of the main challenges for the council. Even if, as seems likely, a pandemic originates abroad, it will probably affect the UK within two to four weeks of becoming an epidemic in the country or origin and could then take only one or two more weeks to spread to all major population centres here."
East Riding Council's health and wellbeing scrutiny sub-committee heard details of the emergency plan.
Anti-viral medication will be issued while scientists work on a vaccine, but it could take six months to develop.
Public health messages will be given out and public buildings and schools could be issued with alcohol hand rubs in an attempt to prevent the virus spreading.
Large public events could also be cancelled to halt the virus spreading among the population.
Council staff have also been staging drills on how they will work to protect vital services in the event of a pandemic.
Mike McDermott, assistant director for public health, said if 100 people are affected by a new strain of flu, 85 are likely to nurse themselves back to health while 15 will suffer pulmonary complications and five could end up in hospital. Of those, it is estimated that two will die, based on a 2 per cent mortality rate in the event of a pandemic.
About 68 per cent of people over 65 are vaccinated against the flu, while 65 per cent of children in Years 7 and 8 at secondary school have been vaccinated, the highest rate of the three local authorities across the Humber.
However, the pandemic is likely to be a new strain, meaning a new vaccine will have to be developed to protect the population.
Spanish flu claimed millions of livesTHE first pandemic was recorded in the 16th century and there were 28 recorded between then and 1900.
An outbreak of Spanish flu in 1918 claimed between 20 and 40 million lives around the world but public information was withheld.
In 1957, about one million people lost their lives to Asian flu while another one million deaths were attributed to Hong Kong flu in 1968.
In 2003, an outbreak of Sars claimed 800 lives.
More recently, the outbreak of swine flu in 2009 claimed far fewer than one million lives, although children aged five to 14, pregnant women and the elderly were the worst affected groups.
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