IF Hull City remain blind to the threat of relegation – unlikely after the weekend loss to Swansea City kept them 19th – history provides a stark word of warning this Christmas.
According to statistics, any club occupying a place in the drop zone when the turkey is served and crackers are pulled is in big trouble at the foot of the Premier League.
In the last decade over half of those teams have eventually tumbled into the Championship.
Sixteen of the 30 clubs who have been under the waterline at Christmas have stayed there come the end of the season.
That sobering trend ought to shake off any lingering complacency ahead of facing Sunderland on Boxing Day and Leicester City 48 hours later, and bring the Tigers' predicament into sharp focus.
Steve Bruce will hope his side can follow the leads of 14 others in the last 10 years.
Sunderland, most recently, climbed from rock bottom with just 10 points to finish up in 14th last season. Following in the footsteps of West Brom in 2004-05, the Black Cats became only the second team in Premier League history to avoid relegation when 20th at Christmas.
Crystal Palace were another team to provide inspiration.
Despite having just 13 points on the board from their first 17 games, the exact same total accrued by City this season, Tony Pulis' revival saw them finish up in 11th with a remarkable haul of 45 points.
Plenty of others have overcome worse starts than City, too.
Wigan (2007-08), Portsmouth (2005-06) and West Brom (2004-05) were all in worse positions before scrambling to safety.
For every success story, there is another who has fallen through the trapdoor after a festive campaign fought inside the bottom three.
The bad news for City, Leicester and Burnley, the three sides in the Premier League's drop zone, is that the records suggest at least one of them will be playing Championship football next season.
In all 22 of the previous Premier League seasons, one or more of the Christmas bottom three has gone on to be relegated.
In five of the last seven seasons two teams have escaped such a fate but in 2012-13 all three that reached St Stephen's Day in the relegation zone (Wigan, QPR and Reading) would stay there.
A worry for City is that the side in 19th at Christmas has gone on to be relegated in each of the last three years – Bolton in 11-12, QPR in 12-13 and Fulham in 13-14.
All these patterns have no bearing on City's chances of survival.
Bruce's men have a destiny that is theirs to shape all by themselves in the next 21 games and back-to-back wins over Sunderland and Leicester in the next week would change everything in a flash.
What these statistics do tell us, is that the threat of relegation is very real for the Tigers.
Albeit with a less-equipped squad, the 17 points collected up to Christmas was not enough to keep City in the Premier League in 2009-10.
Phil Brown's Tigers had won four of their 18 games that term but just two more followed before they were relegated with little more than a whimper under Iain Dowie.
The City of 2014 is a far superior side to the only other Tigers team relegated from the top flight but now comes the time to prove it.
A record of two wins from 17 Premier League games requires immediate action in the coming weeks or Bruce and his men risk being cut adrift by the start of 2015.
The challenge must be to collect four points from the dates with relegation rivals Sunderland and Leicester, a return that would likely see City reach the halfway mark back above the bottom three.
The visit of Everton on New Year's Day would then arrive with some late festive cheer.
Season by season: Which teams turned it around?2009-10 SEASON: Hull City sat just above the relegation zone five years ago this week but the rest became a sad history under Phil Brown and then Iain Dowie. Portsmouth were doomed when docked nine points for entering administration and it was Burnley who completed the trio. The Clarets had amassed 19 points at Christmas before surrendering. West Ham and Bolton lived to fight another day, with the latter eventually finishing up in 14th.
2010-11 SEASON: Wigan and Wolves both managed to avoid the drop after reaching Christmas Day of 2010 inside the relegation zone. Strong finishes from those two clubs ensured it was Birmingham and Blackpool who tumbled into the second tier. Ian Holloway's men capitulated in the second half of the season after reaching Christmas up in 11th. West Ham's demise was predictable enough. They were bottom for the festive programme and bottom by the final round of games.
2011-12 SEASON: A superb second half of the season for Wigan saw them climb well clear of trouble with a leap from 14 points at Christmas up to 43 come May. There was no such joy for Bolton and Blackburn, though. The Lancashire neighbours could not recover from their poor starts and were forced to surrender their long-held membership cards for the top flight. Wolves were the big losers. They earned just 10 points from 21 games to finish rock-bottom.
2012-13 SEASON: The order might have changed but the bottom three at Christmas were the same three clubs relegated six months later. Hopeless QPR and Reading sides never recovered from terrible starts that had seen them win just once in their first 18 games and despite winning the FA Cup, it was Wigan who joined them on their way back to the Championship. After years of flirting with relegation, the Latics' 21 post-Christmas points proved insufficient.
2013-14 SEASON: Sunderland became only the second club in Premier League history to escape relegation when bottom of the Premier League at Christmas. Gus Poyet's side had only banked 10 points 12 months ago and they joined Crystal Palace in climbing out of trouble and up the table. The victims were Norwich and Cardiff. They appeared relatively comfortable last Christmas in 14th and 15th but eventually tumbled into the bottom three alongside Fulham.
